Aug. 01, 2012 - Issue #876: The Art Of Serving
Political Interference
Political gambit
BC's Premier can't lose with demands on Northern Gateway pipeline
Does BC Premier Christy Clark really believe she can get Alberta to cough up a larger share of the potential revenue from the proposed Northern Gateway Pipeline? Is she really prepared to block the pipeline's approval unless her government's five conditions are met?
Both are good questions, but they are ultimately questions whose answers don't matter. They don't matter because it is not really about the pipeline at all for Ms Clark. It's about trying to stop what, from this vantage point appears to be an almost certain defeat of her government at the hands of the BC New Democrats in next May's provincial election.
Ms Clark is an intelligent woman surrounded by intelligent advisors. There is no way that any of them actually believe that an Alberta government that has, thus far, refused to ensure its own citizens get a fair share of oil and gas revenues will enter negotiations to give British Columbians a fair share.
They also can't possibly believe that the federal government, headed by chief pipeline cheerleader Stephen Harper, would entertain discussions on the topic with Clark when doing so would force them to acknowledge that her expressed concerns about the environment and First Nations communities are legitimate.
What Ms Clark and her advisors do understand is that the Northern Gateway Pipeline is almost universally opposed in British Columbia, and that her chief political rival, New Democrat leader Adrian Dix has vowed from the beginning to oppose the project fully should he become Premier.
Christy Clark and her Liberal Party were in trouble in the polls before Northern Gateway became a public issue. When the issue did hit public consciousness, Adrian Dix was quick to condemn the project. Ms Clark, on the other hand, was quick to waffle—a position she maintained until issuing her demands of Alberta earlier this month.
She figured out early on that taking a position in favour of the pipeline would further hurt her electoral fortunes, and she has since come to understand that non-position she had adopted was causing her just as much damage.
Ideologically Christy Clark is probably even more of a pro-corporate anti-regulation right winger than even Ms Redford. She could not, and would not bring herself to actually come out and oppose the project outright or take on Enbridge, the huge oil and gas company behind the project. That would have gone against her beliefs and turned the few supporters she has left, BC's corporate right, against her as well.
Instead, in a very creative and strategically brilliant move, she found a way to cater to the opponents of the pipeline and position herself as a vocal defender of the environmental and economic interests of British Columbians, all without actually having to come out and publicly oppose the pipeline or Enbridge.
It doesn’t matter at this point if the Alberta government agrees to negotiate or not, or even if the pipeline gets approved or not. All Christy Clark requires is that this battle play out publicly long enough to get her to the provincial election. After that, either Premier Clark will be able to sign off on a deal that helps both her and Ms Redford save face, or her opponent will win and Alberta and Ottawa will have to deal with someone in BC who is genuinely determined to stop the pipeline from happening. All she needs is 10 months, and her strategy will have worked.
This political gambit of hers is actually aided by the fact that the Northern Gateway project may already be on its death bed even without her posturing.
Public opposition across the country is growing, affected First Nations have vowed not to let the pipeline pass, and a damning report from the US characterizing Enbridge as Keystone Kops has the company, Redford and Harper all scrambling to show that this pipeline will somehow be different. And even if it's not already dead, it's certainly in enough trouble to all but guarantee that Ms Clark will get the 10 month reprieve she’s seeking.
In the end, despite the rants and vitriol from Alberta's right and the mainstream media, the only real place that Premier Clark's stunt stands to have any impact is in BC's election next May, and that's the way she wants it. Acknowledging that might help all of us here in Alberta put this circus aside and get back to discussing the real issues affecting our province. V
Ricardo Acuña is the executive director of the Parkland Institute, a non-partisan, public policy research institute housed at the University of Alberta.
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