Nov. 16, 2011 - Issue #839: Ox
The return of La Niña
Weather predictions for the coming winter
Let's start with the long-winded explanation. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (the US government branch focusing on "oceans and the atmosphere" tells us, "La Niña conditions have returned ... indicted by a strengthening of negative sea surface temperatures across the eastern half of the Equatorial Pacific and an increase in below-average subsurface ocean temperature anomalies in the Eastern Pacific, coupled with the fact that the atmospheric circulation across the Pacific also continues to exhibit characteristics of La Niña. Impacts associated with La Niña are now indicated during the autumn, winter and spring months." Wow, a simple "La Niña is back" would have worked for me.
Typically La Niña brings above-average snowfalls and cooler temperatures, but there seems to be some debate on just how typical this year will be. A reliable source has always been AccuWeather's long-range forecaster Joe Bastardi. Unfortunately, after 32 years of service with them he recently retired and now resides with WeatherBELL Analytics. This service commands a $16.99/month subscription (well above my research budget!), so on we go.
The Joe-less AccuWeather has a simple prediction calling it, "Another brutal one." Researchers there expect the volatile La Niña weather patterns to be similar to last year. That could be good news for our Rocky Mountain resorts, with plenty of precipitation once again.
In contrast, the Farmer's Almanac has a dire warning for Western Canada: "This will be a winter of clime and punishment. We are forecasting the upcoming winter will be cold to very cold, from Alberta east across Saskatchewan." But it isn't all bad because, "Another active storm track over the Pacific Ocean will guide systems into southern and central British Columbia and western Alberta, giving them a wetter-than-normal winter." This sounds great for Edmonton snowboarders and skiers, who generally head west into the Rockies to take advantage of any extra snowflakes. But, anyone living in Lloydminster should buy an extra pair of long johns.
Environment Canada's forecast somewhat contradicts this. They predict that British Columbia's interior and Alberta will be colder and drier than normal. Not a lot of text with their predictions, so I'm only relying on maps and numbers here.
In search of something more positive, I headed for a ski and snowboard site, where researchers for On The Snow are pinning their hopes on a repeat of last year's La Niña weather. "We all know how great last season's National Weather Service predictions were," they say. "It can easily be that way again."
As I tap away I'm painfully aware of the slow start to the season so far. Of the major Alberta ski resorts, Marmot Basin and Lake Louise are open on very limited terrain and Sunshine Village has delayed its opening to November 18, due to a lack of the white stuff. Marmot and Louise definitely have an advantage, with snowmaking equipment that's been running around the clock, but recently steady snowfalls at all resorts have given Sunshine a chance to catch up. Over the border in BC, the snow is yet to fly, with all resorts predicting a December opening.
So if it's going to be another La Niña year, I say bring it on. Just like last year's Warren Miller movie, maybe we're in for another Wintervention.
More stories in Snow Zone »
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